Oscar Predictions 2016 – Review

So per my last post where I made educated guesses, I will now review how I did…Overall, I guessed in 18 categories, and was right in 13/18 times for about 72% accuracy.

Picture – Wrong

Director – Right

Original Screenplay – Right

Adapted Screenplay – Right

Cinematography – Right

Film Editing – Right

Sound Editing – Wrong

Sound Mixing – Wrong

Original Score – Right

Production Design – Right

Costume Design – Right

Makeup & Hair Styling – Right

VFX – Wrong

Actor – Right

Actress – Right

Supporting Actor – Wrong

Supporting Actress – Right

Animated Feature – Right

Note:  my analytics do not predict who wins in what Oscar category. They evaluate $(CV) [content value] — this exercise was purely my making educated guesses in regard to my gut instinct of what I thought the Academy would reward.

Oscar Predictions 2016 – Review

Oscar Predictions 2016

NOTE 1:  The below does not reflect all categories.  I did not put in my 2 cents in categories I am not knowledgeable enough in this year.  The following reflects my guesses based on categories where I have seen enough content to have an opinion on what I think the Academy sentiment will be.

NOTE 2:  these are NOT my personal picks for what I feel should win, these are my guesses as to what I think will win based on Academy sentiment.  Please note this difference.

Picture – The Revenant

Director – The Revenant

Original Screenplay – Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay – The Big Short

Cinematography – The Revenant

Film Editing – Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing – The Revenant

Sound Mixing – The Revenant

Original Score – The Hateful Eight

Production Design – Mad Max: Fury Road

Costume Design – Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup & Hair Styling – Mad Max: Fury Road

VFX – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Actor – Leo DiCaprio

Actress – Brie Larson

Supporting Actor – Sly Stallone

Supporting Actress – Alicia Vikander

Animated Feature – Inside Out

Looking forward to seeing how accurate my guesses are!







Oscar Predictions 2016

What Makes A Good Manager (Leader) – Part 4

NOTE: Continuing this series…

In the last post, I discussed E.Q. in the context specifically of “business E.Q.” and how it related to the fundamental theorem of leadership:  [Vision] + [E.Q.] = CEO/leadership material.

I’m now going to drill down and focus on one of the most important elements of E.Q. which is…

Emotional Control Stemming From Internal Fortitude

In your journey as a manager, you will encounter people within your organization who are skeptical of your decision-making.  You may hear things like: “he’s difficult to work with” & “he never chooses my suggestions” & “he’s too opinionated.”

In your journey, you will encounter naysayers from outside your company who look at your decision-making as sub-optimal, heck, they even may label it flat-out “stupid.”

You need to be able to maintain calm, project confidence, & continue to be the “rock” upon which the company is built, even when you are confronting the haters, the doubters & the whispers of people who don’t concur with your decisions.

Internally in your company, you need to have processes to allow people to verbalize their opinions – give people that forum. I’m a believer in holding big, internal meetings so that the rank and file can get exposure to the top of the org chart.

Your job as a leader is to deal with the uncertainty, the negativity, & the hate that comes your way. And your job is to show up to work ready to inspire your troops & projecting confidence, even at the times when you yourself may be questioning.

And if you are questioning, then you need your own process & systems to get your mojo back – whether it is confiding in a trusted mentor, or simply taking a day or two off in order to get mental clarity through collecting your thoughts.

Having “alone time” & “thinking” – being a ‘thinker’ – is critical to leadership because it’s critical to vision – and as we’ve discussed, “vision” is one of reactants in the fundamental theorem of leadership.

To be a leader is to forge your own path against the tidal wave of uncertainty & negativity that will at certain points on the journey be leveled your way.

If you have the need to be loved at all times on the journey, then the role of leader is NOT for you.

To consistently need external validation is not being a leader, it’s being a “counter” – one who requires a prerequisite external “numerical vote” (a “count”) in order to execute decisions.

If you’re a leader, you need to have the courage of your own convictions & you need to have an inner place where you summon the internal fortitude to maintain emotional control against the tidal wave of hate/negativity/doubt/questioning [pick your adjective] that will come your way.

Clarity of purpose matters.  And that starts internally, in one’s own psyche.  If the “head” of the leader is not right, then how can you expect the rest of the “body” to function?

What Makes A Good Manager (Leader) – Part 4

What makes a good manager (leader) – Part 3

NOTE: Continuing this series…

I left off my last post with the equation that [vision] + [E.Q.] yields CEO/senior manager material. 

I’ve addressed the idea of vision in my previous posts, but now want to focus on how E.Q. fits into this equation.

According to wikipedia:

Emotional intelligence (EI) or emotional quotient (EQ) is the ability of individuals to recognize their own and other people’s emotions, to discriminate between different feelings and label them appropriately, and to use emotional information to guide thinking and behavior.

To clarify, I am talking about a very specific type of E.Q., which I will deem “business E.Q.” (henceforth many times in this post, I will just refer to it as E.Q. for short because all of this is in the context of ‘business’).

This is an important distinction because people can have “high E.Q.” but not necessarily specifically “business E.Q.”  Example:  someone who throws great parties in school, is well-liked by their peers, & has charisma because they navigate the interpersonal waters of relationships well – that person may very well have high E.Q.

But you can have high E.Q. but not necessarily high “business E.Q.”  Therefore, it’s important to make the distinction that in the context of business, there is an I.Q. component to the E.Q. matrix.  That’s where “vision” comes from.

Vision requires intelligence because it requires foresight to things that have not yet occurred, or the ability to put together strategies to create a reality that has not yet occurred.

Tying back to the difference between a more general E.Q. & business E.Q. – it’s this “vision” component that is a fundamental concept & differentiator, because it directly relates to how E.Q. is executed in the context of business.

Again, going back to our above example of the great party-thrower in school, this person may have high E.Q. because she is (i) fun to hang out with in the moment ; (ii) understands peoples’ emotions & adjusts accordingly so is widely-liked by many different types of people ; (iii) finally also has a high ability to regulate her own emotions, which makes her someone that rarely makes people uncomfortable.

The above definitely is high E.Q. …

But E.Q. in the context of business leadership requires vision – and that means that you’re not always in the present moment. And in order to get the company to a future reality that has not yet come to pass, it means having to utilize E.Q. to understand the various people around you in the company: their psychologies, their motivations – and then use E.Q. to push everyone on the journey to get to the vision that many times only you see.

The above is not always a “party” (meaning not always “fun”) and that’s the reason I chose that example of a great party-thrower…

E.Q. in the context of a more general social dynamic can be very much about “being in the moment.”  Business, and especially creating increasing future value for an enterprise, is about the future.

Important:  most people DON’T see the future.  That’s why most people AREN’T leaders/CEO’s/senior managers.  That’s why most people view the CEO/senior manager position as “easier” than their job: ‘all that guy does is make decisions after listening to people, hell, I could do that‘ – no, you most likely can’t.  It seems easy in theory, but is infinitely complex in execution & practice.

So the E.Q. component of leadership in the context of business is really about utilizing social skills to drive your people toward a vision that will result in increased company value.

You can’t always just do what’s the highest E.Q. (happiest-making) decision for the individual you are addressing in that particular moment because business is not all about the current moment.  It’s not a party, where everyone is your guest & you’re trying to make everyone be comfortable and have fun.

No, business is about driving toward future goals, it’s about creating a sustainable entity that will increasingly create ever-more value for shareholders, and most importantly for customers.

Business is about the future because it requires vision to imagine a future before said future has come to pass.

But E.Q. are the tools you need to guide the ship & its people on the journey to getting to that vision – to realizing that future.

That’s why the most important skill for success in business leaders is people management.  And “people management” is a synonym for CEO/senior managers.  And as defined above, the reactants that catalyze to output ‘people management’ are [vision] + [E.Q.].


You need to be inspirational to help your troops stay motivated when they themselves don’t have the ability to see the future that will come to pass.

You need to balance carrot & stick motivational techniques, dependent on what is effective for the individual troops who are under your purview.

You gotta be able to recruit and hire fantastic talent & then retain them throughout the highs and the lows that are inevitable in business.

And you have to have “internal vision” – and know what you yourself are either (i) weak in ; (ii) or that you don’t have the time to deal with on a daily basis…so then use your social skills to attract hires & architect your team around the things that you yourself need to plug…and realize that you personally can’t become amazing at all skills & understand what needs to be done to plug those deficiencies in yourself & others already in the company.

Vision is the ability to see the future, but you don’t get to that future unless you have the E.Q to attract, hire, inspire, motivate, and retain the people who can help you get there.

Success & failure in business is directly proportional to the ability of teams of people to work together.

E.Q. can collectively be thought of as the tools that you need to create the team & make your decisions in regard to the team – ones that allow you to ultimately realize the value of your company, which was originally only seen in your mind’s eye because at that time, it was only “vision.”

What makes a good manager (leader) – Part 3

What makes a good manager (leader) – Part 2

NOTE:  Continuing this series…

In the below, I am going to list some of the factors that I think are critical for great leaders but almost universally they revolve around one core concept: high E.Q. as it relates to “people management”…

  • Ability to consistently make good choices in the face of “incomplete information”
  • Ability to make “tough calls” especially when there is not consensus
  • Related to the above, ability to exit non-performing members of the team and/or bad “cultural fits”
  • Ability to hire & retain the best executive talent
  • Ability to inspire others that the choices you’re making as a manager are always coming from a place of what is best for the company as a whole & its long-term sustainability & value
  • Ability to anticipate problems & take care of them before they become bigger, or to see them coming from a mile away and take steps to avoid them altogether

Ultimately, in regard to building value for a company, I do not believe in “democratic leadership” in which you get your direct reports around a table, take a vote, and the highest vote wins.

This is a huge mistake – and I think it’s one that many people make when they first become CEO’s & senior managers (guilty as charged, I made this mistake).

When I started as a CEO, I was still too worried about “everyone getting along & being happy.”  And that leads to poor decision-making because you are not putting the company first & you are also not acknowledging a fundamental component of business…

You’re the CEO (or in a senior management position) BECAUSE you have vision – this means you have a skill that 99% of people DO NOT HAVE.  And giving equal “weight” to everyone’s opinion fails to acknowledge the stone-cold fact that not all opinions are created equally.

Therefore, I am a strong proponent of “democratic listening” to the opinions of the people who report to you.  This means you give the opportunity for everyone who you respect around you to inform you of her perspective, to voice it.

Don’t get me wrong – you should ask for peoples’ opinions, and you should hear them out & listen to them.  But “listen to them” is not synonymous with execute them.

Ultimately, it’s your job as a leader to make the call.  And making the call is inclusive of choosing which inputs to listen to or not listen to.

Let me clarify the above further because it’s a crucial concept…

If a report comes to you with the optimal strategy, it is still your decision to then execute based on that.  While you should always give credit to the good ideas/work of others, the sooner you get comfortable with the idea that even if someone else “thinks of it,” it’s still you’re making the call because you are allowing that idea/strategy to get executed.

Anyway, I think there are really 3 main courses of action and I define them below:

  • One of your direct reports actually has the optimal strategy, so it’s then your ability to recognize this is the optimal strategy & help everyone understand that this is what they should be executing on
  • Your direct reports have elements which make up the optimal strategy, so it’s your job to synthesize all of this information, and then output the strategy that combines all of these positive elements coming from different sources – and then that becomes the strategy you execute on
  • Your direct reports are “off” & are not able to either (i) come up with the optimal strategy ; (ii) there are vastly differing opinions on what that optimal strategy is (and they’re not optimal in your mind) – so it’s then your job as the CEO or a senior manager to come up with the optimal strategy – and then execute that

That 3rd bullet above is the most uncomfortable for many (it was for me) when you first find yourself in a senior position.  Basically, there will be times when you have to have the internal temerity to tell everyone that they are not approaching this optimally, and then put forth what you want them to do.

I do not believe in “flowery word choice” in which you say things like: “You all thought of really good ideas, but here’s what we have decided.”

I believe in being straightforward: “I listened to what everyone had to say & I’m not confident moving forward with any of the strategies that have been presented thus far. So here’s what I’ve decided we’re going to do...”

Then list what that strategy is. And make sure everyone knows that if they are not clear how it applies to their job, then the door is open to seek further clarity.

People respect those who are bold enough to execute on their vision in the name of creating long-term value.  That applies at both the macro level (press, shareholders, etc.) & the micro level (the day-to-day people you work with).

If you’re going to be a leader, then there is no more ultimate test than when you must disagree with the group.  And then get everyone onboard to execute an endeavor that while it may be uncomfortable & unpopular in the short-term, you are confident that over time, the results will allow those around you to see that you are one to have confidence in, because you indeed have vision.

And [vision] + [E.Q.] = CEO/senior manager material.



What makes a good manager (leader) – Part 2